The Next Industrial Revolution - Is Happening In 1910
Matt, our product manager, sent me a couple of interesting links about the next Industrial Revolution. The first was an article in Wired Magazine by Chris Anderson. The second was a rebuttal in Gizmodo by Joel Johnson. Both had some interesting points. Both, as far as my thoughts go, have some truth and both have some silliness, again as far as my thoughts go.
Regarding the idea that what is going is something new and revolutionary, well, maybe the products are new, but the process really isn't, but for a few specific details. A while back, the country was coming off of an economic down turn and a wholesale group of young folk with tools at hand built an industry in garages and barns. That was the auto industry.
All of those farm kids grew up around machinery. They all had the tools at hand and the knowledge to use them. Communications (teletype, telephone, newspapers) was changing the way information flowed around the country and world. Transportation (railroad and the autos/trucks that they were building) was in revolution and changing the accessibility of new markets.
Car companies were coming and going all over the place. Sound familiar? Then there was consolidation, conformity, near-monopoly, bloatware and then crash. Yeah, and the same thing started with electronics and computing back in the 60's, 70's and 80's. It's happening again now too. Big surprise. It happens whenever there is a convergence of the cycles of low-barrier to entry (good, cheap tools), emerging technology and bright young folks with time on their hands.
I see some of what Chris is talking about in our electronics manufacturing customers. I just have a bit of a different take on it. First, rather than seeing this all as new, I kind of feel like "here it goes again." Second, I think what he misses is the concept of scale. On certain scales, what he says is very true and very workable. However, companies that spend a few years developing their products would like to eat food and send their kids to college, so they need to earn money for that intellectual property they have developed. That being the case, they still need a place to build their things, but a place that wont steal that intellectual property and deny the company's kids their college education and food.
There's a place for the model Chris is describing. There's also a place for megalithic industry producing gajillions. And there's a place for companies like Screaming Circuits that cost more than open source but focus on making life easy for an engineer and can build prototypes or flexible low to mid volume manufacturing without the hassle of big industry or the risk of losing a livelihood to people with a very liberal interpretation of who owns what. (see #1101 in this post)
Danger Will Robinson!